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Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons From Wall Street's Four Great Bottoms, by Russell Napier
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This is a good time to look at the financial bear. How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end? There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future. Looking at the four occasions when US equities were particularly cheap - 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982, Russell Napier sets to answers these questions by analysing every article in the Wall Street Journal of either side of the market bottom. In these 70,000 articles he examines, one begins to understand the features which indicate that a great buying opportunity is emerging. By looking at how markets really did work in these bear-market bottoms, rather than theorising how they should work, Napier offers investors a financial field guide to making the best financial provisions for the future.
- Sales Rank: #1749433 in Books
- Brand: Brand: CLSA
- Published on: 2005-12-05
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.25" h x 6.25" w x .75" l,
- Binding: Paperback
- 324 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
About the Author
Russell Napier is a consultant with CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets writing on issues affecting global equity markets. After studying law, he began his investment career sixteen years ago at Baillie Gifford in Edinburgh managing funds in the Japanese then the US and finally the Asian markets. Moving to Foreign & Colonial Emerging Markets in London he was responsible for managing Asian portfolios. In May 1995, Russell relocated to Hong Kong to become Asian equity strategist for CLSA, a leading Asian equity brokerage. He occupied that position in a full time capacity until 1999 and was ranked number one for Asian strategy in all major industry polls including Institutional Investor from 1997-1999. Since 1999, apart from fulfilling the consultancy role with CLSA, Russell has created and established a new course called A Practical History of Financial Markets (www.sifeco.org), which is taught through the Edinburgh Business School and has been approved by the CFA Institute as part of its Professional Development Program.
Most helpful customer reviews
8 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Great Study of Long-Term Bear Markets
By A dad
The main thing I learned from Anatomy of the Bear is that at the bottom of a secular bear market, the news is pretty good. But people are very slow to respond because they've learned to distrust the market. This makes the bottom of a bear a lot different from an interim low, when the news is bad.
Another thing I learned was the meaning of "Dr. Copper." I had wondered what this meant. In the previous 4 conclusions to a long bear market, a rise in copper prices was the first indicator that economic activity was picking up. Further, author Russell Napier presented the order in which different asset classes rose in price, indicating that the bear was over.
I feel strongly that one has to read books such as this one to understand in general how markets behave. The mainstream financial media sends all kinds of signals in comparison. One day headlines say the S&P500 is up on news of a European meeting to discuss a bailout. The next day headlines say the S&P500 is down on news of such a meeting. Napier used research methods to consider the totality of mainstream news stories, not just some in isolation.
Certainly, we have been in a long-term bear market. Everybody wants to know when it ends, but if this bear is similar to the four bears Napier outlined, it probably has some more years to run its course.
53 of 54 people found the following review helpful.
Another take on bubbles
By Edster
Another classic of this type is "Manias Panics and Crashes".
This one is specific to the four big Bear markets of the last century. The author goes through each one as an example. He identifies each stage and has clippings from the markets on peoples sentiment. Shows pricings and looks for what was the best indicator at the bottom. There is no hype, predictions, or false systems in this book. It's more presenting information and presenting patterns that occured.
All the bears follow similar patterns where there is froth, leverage, money sloshing around and everything is priced up a bit. Then some triggering event happens and people either re-evaluate or are forced to change their minds on valuations. Prices drop until they hit a bottom. Things uptrend for a while even though the news is still bad.... The author goes over each bear and how it's the same and how it's different.
Until reading this book, I did not understand or even think about using commodity prices as a leading indicator. Did not know that the stock market turned up before the economy did. Did not know that the great depression involved multiple stages, an international banking crisis, and a late move to gold.
After reading this book, now when I see someone on the TV saying that "They've never seen anything like this before" about LTCM, Bear Strerns, or the price of oil or gold... I have a better perspective. When someone tells me that "the market has definately found bottom" or "Can't go down from here"... I kind of chuckle now.
I do know that when people say "This is a great time to buy stocks..." they often don't know what they're talking about, or they're making it up.
If the credit crisis worsens this year, this summer or the next may be the best buying opportunity in the US stock market in the last 30 years. Hopefully what I've read will be some help. Every downturn is different, and Banks/Fed/Investors act differently each time based on past exp and history... It may be that we've already hit bottom... It may be that nothing in this book will call the next bottom... Only time will tell.
Many won't read this book because it doesn't say "Get RICH QUICK" on the front... LOL
25 of 25 people found the following review helpful.
All about the bear markets
By Steve Burns
This book is rare in that it examines the four greatest bear market bottoms that would have made you the most money if you would have entered them at the right time, instead of the endless books out that show how to buy the hottest stocks in a perpetual bull market. What I like about this book is that the author stays away from his own opinions and simply shows the facts by examining the Wall Street Journal articles during each of these periods, August 1921, July 1932, June 1949, and August 1982. These were the actual bottoms when the market finally began to reverse. You will surprising see that unlike common Wall Street myths the bottom is not when things are the worse and everyone has a negative outlook, actually the WSJ article show that there was hope of a turn around, volume had dried up, P/E ratios were obviously absurdly low, and car sales were beginning to pick up. You will do very well to buy and read this book and add its information to your arsenal of trading and investing. While most of us sit out bear markets to keep our gains it is very important to know when to buy back in for the next up leg, this book can help you do just that.
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